Exploring Psychological Factors Influencing the Adoption of Sustainable Public Transit Considering Preference Heterogeneity

Carbon emission reduction strategies are being implemented in the transportation sector by encouraging the adoption of eco-friendly vehicles and introducing demand management policies such as Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Nevertheless, the efficacy of MaaS in reducing carbon emissions remains uncertain. This study introduces Sustainable Public Transit (SPT) as a public transit alternative consisting of only green modes to promote sustainability. We explore the preferences of SPT in a commuting context, incorporating individual preference heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. We systematically identify the relationship between choice behaviors and individual heterogeneity in alternative attributes and psychological factors stemming from socio-demographic characteristics. The integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model with a mixed logit form is adopted, and the key findings can be summarized as follows: Preference heterogeneity is observed in the travel cost variable, which can be explained by characteristics such as the presence of a preschooler, household size, and income. CO2 emissions do not have a statistically significant impact on choices. Furthermore, psychological factors are also explained through socio-demographic characteristics, and it is found that low-carbon knowledge positively influences low-carbon habits. Psychological factors significantly affect choices. Respondents who dislike transfers and prioritize punctuality are less likely to choose SPT, while those who have positive low-carbon attitudes are more likely to do so. Finally, scenario analysis is conducted to forecast mode share based on improvements in SPT alternative attributes and variations in attribute levels. Policy implications are then provided to enhance the acceptability of SPT.