The Concentration of Reproduction During the Fertility Transition in Developing Countries

This article revisits and updates an earlier study of the increased concentration of reproduction that has occurred or is occurring during the fertility transition in developing countries. Using 350 DHS datasets for 87 developing countries, the analysis extends the observation period by several decades, considers a larger range of completed fertility, and expands the geographic coverage by including more countries from all regions of the world. It shows that reproduction tends to become increasingly concentrated within the population during the early stages of the fertility transition in developing countries, but that once completed fertility reaches a level of about 4 children per woman, the concentration of reproduction tends to stabilize. The changing concentration of reproduction over the course of the fertility transition in developing countries has implications for who becomes a parent, who bears the risks of childbearing, and who covers the costs of raising children in a society.