Observational and modeling analyses reveal weakened La Niña impacts on the negative Indian Ocean Dipole since 1999, highlighting increasing complexity in future tropical air-sea coupling.
As global warming intensifies, the coupling relationship between negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) and La Niña has substantially changed. However, the characteristics and mechanisms of these changes are not yet fully understood. Here, we find that the impact of La Niña on nIOD has considerably weakened since 1999, with the frequency of nIOD occurrences during La Niña years plummeting to a mere one‐third of the pre‐1999 levels. This is primarily attributed to the early onset of Indian summer monsoon and the decrease in La Niña intensity, while the effect of variations in Bjerknes feedback is relatively minor. Model simulations suggest that the influence of La Niña on nIOD will continue to weaken under future global warming through similar mechanisms as in the observations, increasing the complexity of air‐sea coupling in the Indian Ocean.
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Zu et al. (2024) studied this question.
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