Genotypic variation in blueberry flower morphology and nectar reward content affects pollinator attraction in a diverse breeding population

Pollination is crucial to obtaining optimal blueberry yield and fruit quality. Despite substantial investments in seasonal beekeeping services, blueberry producers consistently report suboptimal pollinator visitation and fruit set in some cultivars. Flower morphology and floral rewards are among the key factors that have shown to contribute to pollinator attraction, however little is known about their relative importance for improving yield in the context of plant breeding. Clarifying the relationships between flower morphology, nectar reward content, pollinator recruitment, and pollination outcomes, as well as their genetic components, can inform breeding priorities for enhancing blueberry production. In the present study, we measured ten flower and nectar traits and indices of successful pollination, including fruit set, seed count, and fruit weight in 38 southern highbush blueberry genotypes. Additionally, we assessed pollinator visitation frequency and foraging behavior over two growing seasons. Several statistical models were tested to optimize the prediction of pollinator visitation and pollination success, including partial least squares, BayesB, ridge-regression, and random forest.