Identification of Optimal Machine Learning Algorithms and Molecular Fingerprints for Explainable Toxicity Prediction Models Using ToxCast/Tox21 Bioassay Data

Recent studies have primarily focused on introducing novel frameworks to enhance the predictive power of toxicity prediction models by refining molecular representation methods and algorithms. However, these methods are inherently complex and often pose challenges in understanding and explaining, leading to barriers in their regulatory adoption and validation. Therefore, it is necessary to select the optimal model, considering not only model performance but also interpretability. This study aimed to identify the optimal combination of molecular fingerprints (pattern-based versus algorithm-based) and machine learning algorithms (simple versus complex) for developing explainable toxicity prediction models through an comprehensive investigation of the ToxCast/Tox21 bioassay data set. For 1092 ToxCast/Tox21 assays, five molecular fingerprints (MACCS, Morgan, RDKit, Layered, and Patterned) and six algorithms (MLP, GBT, Random Forest,