Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Use in Qingmei Harbor Mangrove Nature Reserve of Sanya (China) under Multi‐Scenario Simulation

Based on the land use data of Qingmei Harbor Mangrove Nature Reserve in Sanya, China, in 2009, 2015 and 2022, this paper utilizes the PLUS model to predict the land use changes in the region in 2035 under three development scenarios, namely natural development, urban construction and ecological protection. The results of the study show that the area of building land in this region increased rapidly from 2009-2015, and the corresponding cropland, parkland and arbor forest land as a whole showed a different degree of decline, while the expansion of the area of manmade land, such as building land, basically came to a standstill after 2015. However, the mangrove area in this region has maintained a stable growth trend from 2009-2022. The results of multi-scenario modeling of land in this region showed that the area of building land, unutilized land, and artificial land such as parkland and grassland increased the most under the urban development scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of ecological land, such as arbor forest land and river and lagoon, increases significantly. However, there is no significant increase in the area of mangrove forests under any of the three development scenarios. At present, the task of “returning ponds to wetlands” has been basically completed in this area, and the space for large-scale expansion of mangrove forests in Qingmei Harbor is limited in the future, and the focus of subsequent work should be shifted to the enhancement of the quality and function of mangrove ecosystems.