Quantifying the Impact of Extreme Storm Events on Aviation Operations over Europe and the USA

Extreme storm events have a profound impact on aviation operations, often leading to significant damages and hazardous flying conditions. This study focuses on four prominent storms that affected both Europe and the USA between February 2022 and June 2023, resulting in widespread disruptions to aviation services.By leveraging historical and contemporary data on sea level pressure (SLP), this research applies the attribution methodology outlined by Yiou {Yiou} to compute weather analogues. By means of 6-hourly ERA5 data-sets spanning from 1950 to 2023, split into two distinct 35-year periods—[1950–1984], denoting a factual period,  and [1988–2023], representing a counterfactual period — we identify the cyclone time for each event, designated as the time when cyclones associated with the storms reach their lowest SLP. Thirty best analogue cyclones are selected within defined spatial domains for each period, encompassing all months of the year in one case and only the months of the involved season in the other.Composite maps of SLP and geopotential height anomalies are computed for the time-steps corresponding to the found analogues, assessing differences between the two periods. The analysis extends to precipitation and eddy dissipation rate (EDR), a crucial indicator to assess the level of air turbulence during flights.These comprehensive analyses aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric conditions during the studied extreme events, to enhance understanding of the atmospheric dynamics of extreme storm events and their implications for aviation safety, flight operations, and air traffic management. The findings are crucial for developing strategies to mitigate risks and improve adaptation for future storm events in the aviation industry.