Do regional suicide rates predict reproductive fitness among those with mental health conditions? Presenting operational calibrations for testing the theory of psychological aposematism

Psychological aposematism suggests that suicide operates as a conditioning mechanism for society. If bereavement and economic impacts from several suicides under similar contexts are experienced by a community, that community may be prompted to alleviate said contexts. This process may prove evolutionarily adaptive if translating into the relief of low-fitness contexts for suicidal individuals. A prediction of this theory is that geographical regions with higher suicide rates will exhibit higher reproductive fitness among those who suffer from suicidality or mental illness. This hypothesis is examined using limited data, from a combination of Statistics Canada data sources. The provinces of Canada (n = 10) were used across 2 time-points (2016 and 2021 Census cycles) to explore and calibrate possible statistical tests of the stated hypothesis. Suicide rates preceding Census years were used to predict changes in reproduction among those reporting a mental health condition versus those reporting no mental health condition. Several operationalisations of stated concepts were used, with favourability of results being judged by the degree of agreement between differential approaches (referred to as coherency). Some observed data patterns appear favourable towards the given hypothesis, though results are not statistically significant and are not always coherent with results observed under differential operationalisations. Results will receive continued re-evaluation as new Census and suicide rate data become available.