An Empirical Test of a Theory of Theory Building and Testing (called IBET) Using as Data Research Conducted by Recent Nobel Laureates in Economics and Physics

This paper presents an empirical test of an inference-to-the-best-explanation-based theory of theory building and testing called IBET. IBET is based heavily on Lipton’s 2004 book Inference to the Best Explanation. The test reported here was conducted using—as data—theory building and/or testing in 41 projects undertaken by recipients of recent Nobel Prizes in Economics and Physics. Conclusions are: (a) that in the sample tested there was very strong empirical support for IBET, and (b) based on sample-representativeness arguments, this support probably generalises to all theory building in Economics and Physics.