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The United Nations Population Prospects provide past estimates and future projections of population by country, sex and age from 0 to 100 years. The latest edition, published in July 2024, covers the years 1950 to 2100. The aim of this study is to extend the UN projections up to the age of 125 using a linear mortality model that we have previously shown to be accurate for centenarians from G12. To calibrate the model, the cumulative results up to 2024 are compared with the number of supercentenarians by country and sex as reported by longevity validation organisations. The projections are then used to forecast the global number of supercentenarians to 2100.
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Gibbs et al. (2024) studied this question.
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