The Ability of Survey Estimates to Predict Actual Vaccination Rates: the Boston Case

Objective To assess how well the intention to vaccinate against COVID-19 (before the COVID-19 vaccines became available) predicts actual neighborhood vaccination rates. Study Setting This study draws on survey data collected from Boston residents in June and September of 2020, and data from two publicly available reports on COVID-19 vaccination rates in Boston’s neighborhoods in September 2021 and July 2022. Methods The survey of Boston residents (n=932), conducted by mail and online, asked about the intention to vaccinate against COVID-19 before the vaccine became available. To assess how well the vaccine intentions predict neighborhood vaccination rates, we compared neighborhood-level percentages reported by survey respondents with the actual neighborhood vaccination rates reported by the City of Boston. Principal Findings Our findings show that a single survey question about vaccine intention can help predict actual vaccination rates. Conclusion This study provides insights into how well population-based survey estimates of vaccine intention can predict actual vaccination rates. For public health practitioners who want to use a single survey question in future studies, it is important to know that both the value of the estimate and the time since the question was asked must be considered to properly interpret the meaning of the results.