Investigating First Instinct Fallacy in Cytology Education and Cytomorphology Examination

The specific aims of the study are to assess whether answer changing on a high-stake cytomorphology examination will lower the cytology examinees' scores and to examine whether there is a difference in the frequency of responses changed between high, average, and low performing cytology learners. The paper also seeks to explore if there is a correlation between outcomes of answer changes (success rates) and cytology learner's levels of performance. The eraser marks and pen cross-outs on the cytology final image examinations from 2019-2023 were reviewed and the number of changes made by the examinees and the frequency to which scores were raised or lowered as a result was recorded. Moreover, the response change patterns and outcomes across low, medium and high performing cytology learners were further analyzed for possible relationships. Among the total number of questions where answer(s) were changed (n=98), close to half (n=47, 48.0%) of the changes resulted in raising the score, compared to about one-thirds (n=34, 34.7%) that lowered it. When the students were classified into academic abilities, there was a significant correlation between the success rates of answers changed across low, medium, and higher learners χ2 (df=24,n=24)=10.24, P<0.05. Our data also showed the average student group to have the highest "scores raised" to "scores lowered" ratio. Based on these findings, those cytology examinees who are overly cautious about changing initial responses during a high-stake MCQ test may put themselves at a disadvantage.