Population vs. Poverty Level in the Future in Indonesia: Holt’s Linear Trend Method

Poverty is one of the major issues in the field of economics and a serious focus for finding effective solutions.Population size is also a key factor that can influence the poverty rate.This research aims to evaluate the conditions of poverty and the population of Indonesia in the next five years, from 2023 to 2027.Forecasting methods are used, specifically Exponential Smoothing and Holt's method, due to the presence of trends in the data.With the assistance of machine learning technology, particularly using the R, poverty rates and population figures can be projected.The results of the projections indicate that the population of Indonesia is expected to continue increasing each year from 2023 to 2027 or have a positive trend.On the other hand, the poverty rate in Indonesia is projected to decrease each year or have a negative trend during the same period, from 2023 to 2027.This research has important implications for policymakers, as it underscores the significance of data-driven decision-making and informed policy development.The positive demographic trend suggests the necessity of preparing for the associated challenges and requirements of a growing population.Meanwhile, the declining poverty rate presents an opportunity for socio-economic development, necessitating sustained efforts to maintain this trajectory.The study underscores the importance of data analysis and forecasting in addressing critical issues like population growth and poverty reduction, ultimately contributing to the well-being and advancement of Indonesian society.