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This paper introduces an agent-based simulation model aimed at understanding urban commuters mode choices and evaluating the impacts of transport policies to promote sustainable mobility. Crafted for developing countries, where utilitarian travel heavily relies on motorcycles, the model integrates sociocultural factors that influence transport behavior. Multinomial models and inferential statistics applied to survey data from Cali, Colombia, inform the model, revealing significant influences of sociodemographic factors and travel attributes on mode choice. Findings highlight the importance of cost, time, safety, comfort, and personal security, with disparities across socioeconomic groups. Policy simulations demonstrate positive responses to interventions like free public transportation, increased bus frequency, and enhanced security, yet with modest shifts in mode choice. Multifaceted policy approaches are deemed more effective, addressing diverse user preferences. Outputs can be extended to cities with similar sociocultural characteristics and transport dynamics. The methodology applied in this work can be replicated for other territories.
Salazar-Serna et al. (Tue,) studied this question.