China doubles down on protectionism at third plenum

Significance Despite pressure for bold reforms to address a slowing economy and geopolitical tensions, the document largely repeated existing messaging, suggesting that conservatives won out over reformists in the Party. Innovation aims competed with national security, no new solutions to the property market crisis were proposed and core concerns of trading partners were left unaddressed. Impacts President Xi Jinping’s ultimate reaffirmation of his policy trajectory will bolster perceptions of his centralisation of power. Attempts to balance innovation with national (Party) security will impede efforts to make China a technological superpower. Local governments will gain new income sources such as consumption tax revenue, which will somewhat alleviate their fiscal strains. Foreign businesses and governments will need to factor the state’s increasing role in the economy into strategic risk management.