The natural menstrual cycle revisited – can natural cycle be trusted

Background: The serum progesterone (P4) level during the luteal phase (LP) plays a crucial role in the initiation and maintenance of pregnancy. However, it is unclear whether the natural cycle consistently provides the best endocrine profile and whether mid-luteal serum P4 levels are always sufficient to support implantation and early pregnancy. The question has become more relevant in relation to fertility treatment, as more frozen embryo transfer cycles are performed in the natural cycle. Moreover, can serum hormone levels and covariates measured during the follicular phase (FP), such as Follicle Stimulation Hormone (FSH), Luteinizing Hormone (LH), Estradiol (E2), Anti-Mullerian Hormone (AMH) and Antral Follicle Count (AFC), be used to predict P4 levels during the luteal phase (LP)? Results: This observational prospective cohort study analysed 26 healthy women with a cycle length between 21–35 days and a body mass index (BMI) 131pmol/L) and cycle day 10 (> 345pmol/L) and a LP P4 level ≥ 30 nmol/l was found; thus, the FP E2 level is a predictor of corpus luteum competence. Our findings highlight the existence of suboptimal P4 levels during the LP and a significant inter-individual and intra-cycle variation in P4 levels during the LP in regular menstruating women.