Comparison of clinical outcomes and perinatal outcomes between natural cycle and hormone replacement therapy of frozen-thawed embryo transfer in patients with regular menstruation: a propensity score-matched analysis

Purpose To investigate potential differences in pregnancy outcomes among patients with regular menstruation who underwent frozen-thawed embryo transfer using natural cycle (NC) or hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Methods This study retrospectively analyzed 2672 patients with regular menstruation who underwent FET from November 2015 to June 2021 at the single reproductive medical center. A one-to-one match was performed applying a 0.02 caliper with propensity score matching. Independent factors influencing the live birth and clinical pregnancy rates were screened and developed in the nomogram by logistic regression analysis. The efficacy of live birth rate and clinical pregnancy rate prediction models was assessed with the area under the ROC curve, and the live birth rate prediction model was internally validated within the bootstrap method. Results The NC protocol outperformed the HRT protocol in terms of clinical pregnancy and live birth rates. The stratified analysis revealed consistently higher live birth and clinical pregnancy rates with the NC protocol across different variable strata compared to the HRT protocol. However, compared to the HRT treatment, perinatal outcomes indicated that the NC protocol was related to a higher probability of gestational diabetes. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis demonstrated independent risk factors for live birth rate and clinical pregnancy rate. To predict the two rates, nomogram prediction models were constructed based on these influencing factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated moderate predictive ability with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.646 and 0.656 respectively. The internal validation of the model for live birth rate yielded an average AUC of 0.646 implying the stability of the nomogram model. Conclusion This study highlighted that NC yielded higher live birth and clinical pregnancy rates in comparison to HRT in women with regular menstruation who achieved successful pregnancies through frozen-thawed embryo transfer. However, it might incur a higher risk of developing gestational diabetes.