Uncertainty in official statistics ¹

One of the challenges faced by organisations that provide official statistics is how to convey the uncertainty related to the statistics. This artlce sets out the importance of conveying uncertainty, and introduces the work of the UK's Office for Statistics Regulation. The article summarises a short review, undertaken by the Office for Statistics Regulation, of practices by official statistics providers in the United Kingdom. It argues that tthere are two distinct types of uncertainty: specific uncertainty in the statistical estimates themselves; and contextual uncertainty, which lies in the inferences that a user may draw from, and the weight a user may place on, the official statistics. The article then briefly considers the potential relevance of different understandings of cognitive processes. It concludes that the communication of uncertainty is an area of developing practice within official statistics.