Palaeoseismic crisis in the Galera Fault (southern Spain): consequences in Bronze Age settlements?

Abstract. Palaeoseismological studies play a crucial role in the seismic characterization of regions with slow-moving faults. This is the case in the central Betic Cordillera, a highly populated area for which the record of prehistoric earthquakes is very limited, despite being one of the regions with the greatest seismic hazard in Spain. We present here a palaeoseismological characterization of the Galera Fault, one of the active faults accommodating deformation in the central Betic Cordillera. We excavated and analysed several trenches along the fault trace. We quantitatively correlate the results from these trenches, resulting in a surface rupture history involving seven or eight events (accounting for the epistemic uncertainties) during the last ca. 24 000 years, with recurrence intervals ranging from 1520 to 1720 years. Further analysis of this surface rupture history seems to indicate that the Galera Fault is prone to producing earthquake clusters as we recorded five events in ∼400 years (ca. 1536–1126 BCE) and only two events in the ∼3200 years that followed. Using the fault geometry and palaeoseismological data, we also carried out a seismogenic characterization of the fault. This analysis yielded a maximum expected magnitude of 6.7 ± 0.3 and a recurrence interval of 1857 years. Furthermore, we also present a geodetic rupture scenario for the maximum expected event, involving displacements of up to 0.5 m. Finally, we discuss the possible impact of the deduced palaeoearthquakes on the development of Bronze Age human settlements located in the vicinity of the fault. In addition to their intrinsic value, our results will provide the basis for future seismic-hazard assessments carried out in the central Betic Cordillera.