The Impact of Framing on Voters’ Perceptions of Electoral Predictions

Electoral outcomes often generate conflicting perceptions among voters on the winning and losing sides. The negative sentiments of the losing voters have critical consequences in their judgments regarding the democratic system and can even affect personal well-being. In a preregistered laboratory study, 1,012 participants took part in a randomized controlled trial to investigate how the communication framing generates different perceptions toward the prediction outcome and the electoral process, on people whose candidate was most likely to win but ends up losing. As a moderator variable, the research included the degree to which the forecast leans towards one candidate over others, alongside four potential covariates. Results indicated that when predictions were presented as the probability of losing—instead of the equivalent probability of winning format—people were significantly less skeptical about the correctness of predictions and the legitimacy of the election overall. These findings have important implications for cost-effective communication strategies in public policy.