Regional economic output will keep growing in Russia

Significance The deterioration in regional finances is driven by falling incomes in oil-producing regions and higher spending by regional governments. Economic activity is recovering after the severe initial shock of 2022, but progress remains uneven across regions. Supply-side constraints have caused labour shortages, especially in those regions that account for a disproportionate share of defence-industrial production or which supply troops. Impacts Regions specialising in military-industrial production will need to plan for a potential future decline in demand. Rising inter-regional competition for labour resources will obstruct internal migration. The appointment of new regional governors following the presidential election will consolidate Moscow's grip over regional authorities.