Evaluating the predictive efficacy of first trimester biochemical markers (PAPP-A, fβ-hCG) in forecasting preterm delivery incidences

Abstract In this investigation, we explored the correlation between first-trimester biochemical markers and the incidence of preterm birth (PTB), irrespective of the cause, spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), and preterm premature rupture of membranes (pPROM) within a cohort comprising 1164 patients. It was discovered that diminished levels of Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A (PAPP-A) between 11 and 13 + 6 weeks of gestation significantly contributed to the risk of preterm deliveries both before 35 and 37 weeks, as well as to pPROM instances. Furthermore, women experiencing sPTB before the 37th week of gestation also exhibited lower concentrations of PAPP-A. Moreover, reduced first-trimester concentrations of free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (fb-HCG) were identified as a risk factor for deliveries preceding 37 weeks, pPROM, and sPTB before 35 weeks of gestation. Despite these correlations, the area under the curve for these biochemical markers did not surpass 0.7, indicating their limited diagnostic potential. The most significant discriminatory capability was noted for PAPP-A levels, with a threshold of < 0.71 multiples of the median (MoM) predicting PTB before 37 weeks, yielding an odds ratio of 3.11 (95% Confidence Interval CI 1.97–4.92). For sPTB, the greatest discriminatory potential was observed for PAPP-A < 0.688, providing an OR of 2.66 (95% CI 1.51–4.66). The cut-off points corresponded to accuracies of 76.05% and 79.1%, respectively. In regression analyses, the combined predictive models exhibited low explanatory power with R 2 values of 9.2% for PTB and 7.7% for sPTB below 35 weeks of gestation. In conclusion, while certain biochemical markers demonstrated associations with outcomes of preterm birth, their individual and collective predictive efficacies for foreseeing such events were found to be suboptimal.