Does Protest Affect Bystanders? Field Experimental Evidence from Germany

Do protests matter? Only a handful of studies convincingly test causal claims about protests' effects on politics, which is crucial when studying the actual impact of protests. There is a gap in empirical research capable of testing causal claims about protests and the detailed micro-foundations of the theoretical mechanisms developed in protest research. We attempt to address this by designing and conducting a large-scale field experiment, randomly assigning citizens to observe climate strikes by Fridays for Future (FFF) in Berlin, Germany. Theoretically, we argue that observing political protest serves as a visible cue that conveys summary information about societal attitudes and behaviors, creating the impression of shifting public opinion and social norms. We find that while bystanders adapt their actual behavior in favour of protesters' demands, their attitudes and social norm perceptions remain largely unchanged. These findings fill an important gap in the literature by unveiling the mechanisms through which protests translate into shifts in political outcomes.