Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Stream Flow to Climate Variability in Njoro River Catchment, Kenya

Climate variability continues to alter hydrological regimes and the response of many catchments globally thus threatening water security. Njoro River Catchment has not been an exception. There is a steady recognition of climate variability and adverse influences like deterioration of ecosystems, surface, and groundwater sources. Therefore, the study focused on modelling the impact of climate variability on the spatial and temporal distribution of stream flow in the Njoro River Catchment, Kenya. Modelling of stream flow response to climate variability using SWAT was carried out based on USGS/NASA downloaded Digital Elevation Model, FAO soil data, Landsat (MSS 1-5) LULC of 1978, and meteorological data for the period (1978 - 2017). Simulation of spatial and temporal impacts of climate variability was then carried out. Based on the analysis, SUFI-2 algorithm results revealed that the most sensitive parameter in Njoro River Catchment is SCS curve number for antecedent moisture condition (II) (CN2), ranked according to the highest sensitivity tested at p < 0.05. The least sensitive parameter is maximum canopy storage (CANMX). Overall uncertainty analysis results showed a good performance value of P-factor (0.72) and R-factor (0.38), which indicated that SWAT reproduced the dynamics of the catchment hydrologic response relatively well. The values of R2, NSE, and PBIAS for calibration and validation of monthly stream flow were 0.88 and 0.77, 0.86 and 0.74, and 5.51 % and -15.42 % respectively. From the spatio-temporal impacts of climate variability on hydrologic variables, actual evapotranspiration increased by about 5.6 %, 3 %, and 6.62 % in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th decades. Surface runoff decreased in the 2nd decade by 34.56 % and increased by 4.55 % and 34.02 % in the 3rd and 4th decades. Annual water yield decreased in the 2nd decade by 29.69 % and increased by 4.25 % and 60.18 % in the 3rd and 4th decades respectively. On average, stream flow reduced by 30.91 % in the 2nd decade and increased by 5.47 % and 63.63 % in the 3rd and 4th decades respectively. These findings provide pertinent insights, which may perhaps enlighten decision-making in designing adaptable mitigation measures, catchment rehabilitation, and strategic initiatives for the integrated management of water resources.