Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming

Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how ENSO variability may change remains unknown. Here we find that under a high emission scenario, ENSO variability post-2100 reverses from the initial increase to an amplitude far smaller than that of the 20