Distance to climate targets in agriculture in the EU

In the European Union (EU), national climate targets are formulated for aggregate sectors under the Effort-Sharing Regulation (ESR), incl. agriculture. We perform a cross-country analysis of current progress of the EU Member States (MSs) in reaching climate targets for 2030 in agriculture. Observing a remarkable heterogeneity within the EU, we allocated EU MSs into two homogeneous clusters: (1) EU MSs with relatively large distances to climate targets and/or poor progress over the years and (2) EU MSs with relatively small distances to climate targets and/or good progress. We discovered that the first cluster is characterised by more ambitious ESR targets, limited ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by increasing efficiency, and a higher share of mitigation measures that have not been implemented yet. These MSs furthermore pursue a wider range of goals, such as increasing biodiversity, ensuring sustainability, which is in line with the multifaceted role of the agricultural sector.