Effects of Conflict-Induced Food Price Shocks on Food Security Outcomes of the Households in Nigeria

ABSTRACT: Among major development organizations, the unchallenged consensus is that war and conflict are development issues ravaging local economies, often leading to forced migration, refugee populations, and acute food insecurity. Food insecurity when caused by a rise in food prices is a threat for violent conflict. This study was conducted in Nigeria using three types of quantitative data which are the general household panel data, monthly retailed commodity prices, and violent conflict data from 2010 to 2019. This study examines the linkages between conflict, food price shocks, and food security outcomes of households in Nigeria. Per capita daily calorie intake, household dietary diversity, and per capita monthly food consumption were the three food security outcomes used for this study. Fixed effects panel regression models were used to determine the effects of conflict-induced food price shocks on the food security outcomes of households. I was found that dietary diversity appeared to be higher in the first wave than in the other three waves. The measure of dietary diversity for the post-harvests were slightly higher than the post-plantings. The high dietary diversity associated with the post-harvest periods is partly related to the relatively higher net value of foods consumed during the same season. This is because the amount of food calories consumed during the post-harvest periods are relatively lower than the amount consumed during the post-planting periods. Regardless of the conflict level in Nigeria, an increase in conflict-induced price shock of wheat, and rice is associated with a decline in calorie intake, dietary diversity, and the actual food value consumed. The conflict-induced price shocks of other cereals negatively influence the actual food value consumed, and dietary diversity. It is concluded that violent conflict influences some aspects of food insecurity, through adjustment in diets in response to price increases. Conflict-induced price shocks is a necessary condition for food security. Therefore, policy issues aimed at improving the food security outcomes of households in the face of conflict-induced price shocks should focus on price scheme that will stabilise price placing a price floor on food commodities.