Transition meets instability: Chad after Idriss Déby Itno

Chadian President Idriss Déby Itno died on 20 April 2021 on the front lines against rebels from the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT). Following Déby's death, a military committee headed by his son, Mahamat Déby, seized power and initiated a transition that led to Mahamat's election to presidency in May 2024. Domestic conditions have worsened in the interim, and the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel are now among the most unstable regions in the world. Idriss Déby was a key figure in regional security operations and employed gatekeeping and neopatrimonialism to direct resources towards strengthening Chad's forces, but the prolonged transition has called into question the extent to which this strategy of rentier peacekeeping can be maintained. This article assesses why Chad is facing this crisis and how the transition has impacted domestic and regional conditions. This rests on theorisation of the Chadian state, analysis of Chad's history and transition to date, and application of theories of gatekeeper states, neopatrimonialism and omnibalancing to assess where the state is headed in the immediate term, concluding that a transition lacking real democratic transformation will exacerbate rather than alleviate tensions in Chad and the surrounding region.