A meta-model for understanding ‘green-red loop’ social-water interactions at a global scale

Within the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS), social-water interactions exhibit the 'green-loop' and 'red-loop' patterns, where social development is dependent on the local and external environment for resource provision, respectively. Sustainable management requires coordinating the interactions between water and the other socio-environmental systems, which we term 'systems water management (SYWM)'. To understand the generic social-water interactions and obtain management implications for green-red loop systems, we develop a SYWM meta-model that conceptualises high-level social-environmental components and formulates their interactions into casual loops. This meta-model is evaluated via structural equation modelling using global datasets. Red- and green-loop scenarios are constructed to investigate the SYWM differences, and mediation analysis is conducted to quantify the reciprocal effects through the loops. Results show a critically weak causal link (0.22) from environmental state to quality of life, implying that the current water management performances have not been successfully incorporated for guiding further social development. Green- and red-loop systems have different direct causal effects in each link, which drives the corresponding behaviour. Red-loop systems have stronger total effects in causal links within the human system, depicting their strengths in socio-economic and water management decision-making. In contrast, green-loop systems have stronger total effects within the natural system, which symbolises receiving more environmental feedback. A sustainable SYWM that enhances both decision-making and feedback is recommended for green-red loop systems. The meta-model provides a platform for interdisciplinary collaborations and practical tools development that implements systems thinking in water management for sustainable development.