Economic tides and merger waves: insights from a long-run perspective

Purpose This study aims to examine the long-run relationship between macroeconomic and financial conditions and the aggregate number of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the USA, drawing on data spanning from 1928 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach The study estimated a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) encompassing four variables: the aggregate number of M&As, industrial production, the rates on three-month U.S. treasury bills and the closing price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Findings There exists a long-run relationship among the four variables. An increase in industrial production is associated with a fall in M&A transactions, reflecting a tendency for M&A waves to start during economic downturns. Similarly, contractionary monetary policy, which often happens during good economic and financial times, leads to a decline in M&A activity. When the equilibrium among the four variables is disrupted, the aggregate number of M&As, along with financial conditions, works to restore the equilibrium. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the long-run relationship between macroeconomic and financial conditions using data spanning nearly a century.