We study turbulent fluctuation-induced transitions between hurricane-like large-scale vortices and unidirectional jets in stochastically forced, viscously damped two-dimensional turbulence within an elongated periodic domain. Using direct numerical simulations of unprecedented duration, lasting up to 10000 viscous time units, we collect detailed statistical data on the lifetimes of these metastable structures and quantify the impact of the domain aspect ratio, the forcing scale, and the Reynolds number. We also uncover irreversible transition paths between jets and vortices, which consist of two stages: a rapid change in structure and a subsequent slow viscous adjustment of kinetic energy.
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Xu et al. (2024) studied this question.
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