Official Turnovers and Economic Growth: Evidence from China

Abstract The positive interaction between economic growth and official turnover can promote high-quality and stable economic development. Using data from 275 prefecture-level cities in China from 2016 to 2020, this study applies a spatial panel simultaneous equation model to investigate the relationship between economic growth and official turnover, and reveals a two-way relationship. A city's economic growth (official turnover) promotes the growth (official turnover) of other cities in the same province but inhibits their official turnover (economic growth). Heterogeneity analysis by region shows a significant spillover effect of official turnover in one city on economic growth and official turnover in other cities in the same province in the central-eastern region, but not in the western region. JEL code: C33; P35;P11;O12