Examining the relationship between exports and economic growth in Türkiye: Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Türkiye from 2016:1 to 2023:12, focusing on the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis. The Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality Test created by Nazlıoğlu, Gormus and Soytas (2016) was used with variables including total exports and industrial production index derived from monthly data. The data suggest a bidirectional causation between the two variables, indicating that each one is the cause of the other. The export-led growth hypothesis is confirmed in Türkiye for the relevant timeframes. The results of this study align closely with existing research on the topic compared to other studies, further suggesting that decreasing the reliance on imported intermediate items in Turkish export products will enhance the direct connection between exports and economic growth.