Early excellence and future performance advantage

Objectives The objective of this study was to examine the impact of athletes achieving excellence at different ages (excellent age) on their subsequent performance development. The aim was to deepen understanding of the interplay among talent, training, and athletes’ performance development. Additionally, the study aimed to provide insights for athletics coaches to better identify talent and devise more effective personalized long-term training plans. Design This was a cross-sectional study. Method A hierarchical linear model was employed to analyze the correlation between excellent age and subsequent performance development in a cohort of 775 elite track and field athletes. This analysis was expanded upon by the application of a general linear regression model, which was used to explore the relationship between excellent age and peak age, peak performance, as well as the growth in performance during adulthood. Results As athletes reached excellence at later ages, their peak performance exhibited a U-shaped pattern(p <0.001), initially decreasing and then rising. Simultaneously, their peak age became increasingly advanced(p <0.001), with a progressively larger performance improvement during adulthood(p <0.001). In various disciplines, excellent age is negatively correlated with peak performance for speed athletes(p = 0.025), exhibiting a U-shaped pattern for endurance athletes(p = 0.024), and showing no significant correlation for fast-power athletes(p = 0.916). Conclusions Athletes who achieve excellence either early or later often show more remarkable future developments. However, there are significant distinctions in the age at which these athletes reach their peak performance and the pace of improvement leading up to it. Those who excel early may possess greater innate athletic talent, whereas those who excel later may exhibit superior training adaptability. Consequently, an athlete’s early performance can predict his/her future performance trajectory, offering support for individualized long-term training plans. In summary, the age at which athletes achieve excellence may bring different advantages to their future athletic performance and development. This implies that we should harness these differences to uncover each athlete’s maximum potential.