Democracy and free market? Doubtful conditionality of U.S. economic incentives toward sub-Saharan Africa (2018-2021)

Background This article examines the use of economic incentives by the United States to support its main foreign policy objectives in sub-Saharan African countries. It offers an empirical survey based on available data on US foreign aid and grants awarded by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Prosper Africa initiative. The research questions are as follows: 1) Can we observe the stated conditionality of applying economic incentives to countries making progress in the process of democratisation and increasing economic freedom? 2) Which U.S. foreign policy objective is most supported by the economic incentives offered to sub-Saharan African countries? Methods I examine whether countries that are the main recipients of US economic incentives show progress in terms of democracy and economic freedom. I did this based on the data of Freedom House and Heritage Foundation. I also assess whether the US is taking up competition with China in these countries, as well as their importance in US security policy. I did this based on the data from official websites. The starting point of the analysis is 2018, when then-President Donald Trump launched programs to increase economic cooperation with sub-Saharan African countries. The end date is 2021, which includes the last full data available on all US economic incentives under consideration. Results Security cooperation is a priority goal in U.S. policy towards Sub-Saharan Africa supported by economic incentives, and the conditionality associated with democratisation and economic reform is much less important. Conclusions The lack of consistency in declared conditionality and in the application of economic incentives is striking. U.S. policy towards Sub-Saharan African states lacks a coherent strategy and actions are taken ad hoc in times of crisis. Furthermore, the development programmes proposed by successive administrations are merely an attempt to improve existing ones.