Iraq's oil output will grow despite challenges

Significance The government sought to capitalise on political stability and high oil prices to attract international oil companies (OICs) to invest in new prospects on improved terms. Ultimately, Baghdad awarded fewer than half of the blocks offered, but IOCs are stepping up investment in some of their existing assets. Impacts Export infrastructure will be expanded and cross-border pipeline projects revived to enable higher crude sales. Delayed plans for refineries and petrochemicals plants will gain traction to help meet economic and export diversification. Iraq will demand a new production quota within OPEC+ to reflect increases in reserves and production capacity. Decarbonisation and uncertainty about future demand will make IOCs more selective about greenfield crude oil investment.