Predictive modeling of rocking-induced settlement in shallow foundations using ensemble machine learning and neural networks

Introduction The objective of this study is to develop predictive models for rocking-induced permanent settlement in shallow foundations during earthquake loading using stacking, bagging and boosting ensemble machine learning (ML) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. Methods The ML models are developed using supervised learning technique and results obtained from rocking foundation experiments conducted on shaking tables and centrifuges. The overall performance of ML models are evaluated using k-fold cross validation tests and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE) in their predictions. Results The performances of all six nonlinear ML models developed in this study are relatively consistent in terms of prediction accuracy with their average MAPE varying between 0.64 and 0.86 in final k-fold cross validation tests. Discussion The overall average MAE in predictions of all nonlinear ML models are smaller than 0.006, implying that the ML models developed in this study have the potential to predict permanent settlement of rocking foundations with reasonable accuracy in practical applications.