On Labs and Fabs: Mapping How Alliances, Acquisitions, and Antitrust are Shaping the Frontier AI Industry

As frontier AI models progress, policy proposals for safe AI development are gaining increasing attention from researchers and policymakers. This paper evaluates the present landscape of integration within the AI supply chain, emphasizing vertical relations and strategic partnerships, with the goal of laying the groundwork to further understand the implications of various governance interventions, including antitrust. The study has two main contributions. First, it maps the AI supply chain by profiling 25 leading companies, examining their 300 pairwise relationships, and noting approximately 80 significant mergers and acquisitions, and 40 relevant antitrust litigation. Second, it offers a conceptual discussion on market definitions and integration drivers, investigating major players like AI labs and chip designers, horizontal integration levels, and vertical relationships among industry leaders. To further understand the strategic partnerships in the industry, we provide three brief case studies, featuring companies such as OpenAI and Nvidia. We conclude by posing open research questions regarding market dynamics and potential governance interventions, such as licensing and safety audits.