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e15523 Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a critical health issue in the United States, particularly notable for its rising incidence in individuals under 55 years. Factors such as lifestyle habits, and genetic predispositions may contribute to pathogenesis while inadequate screening protocols may lead to delayed diagnoses in this younger demographic. Currently, the initial CRC screening guidelines recommend lowering the start age to 45. We seek to provide current data on the US CRC incidence and estimate the burden by 2030. Methods: Using the CDC National Center of Health Statistics database, we queried the incidence rates of CRC from 1999 to 2020. These are reported in Crude rate and age-adjusted rates to standard year 2000 populations per 100,000 person-years. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to predict the projected incidence rate by 2030. R software version 2023.09 was used for analysis. Results: The study identified 3,201,843 CRC cases from 1999-2020, with a notable increase in incidence rates, especially in younger demographics. The largest increase was in the 30-34 age group, with an AAPC of 2.76, followed by the 25-29 and 35-39 age groups, with AAPCs of 2.57 and 2.24, respectively. In contrast, older age groups showed a decline, with the 75-79 age group decreasing from 9.20 to 3.76, and an AAPC of -4.05%. By 2030, early-onset colorectal cancer is expected to rise, particularly in the 40-44 age group (AAPC of 3.26%) and the 35-39 age group (AAPC of 2.92%). The increase is projected mainly in the 25-54 age groups. Conversely, older populations, particularly the 75-79 age group, are projected to see a decrease in incidence rates, from 3.76 to 1.17 per 100,000 by 2030. Conclusions: Our study highlights a significant rise in early-onset CRC, especially in the 25-54 age group, with an increasing projection by 2030 while older age groups are expected to experience a decrease in incidence rates. Consideration should be given to expanding CRC screening in patients younger than 45. Table: see text
Pan et al. (Sat,) studied this question.