An Analysis of GNI(Gross National Income) per Capita and Human Development Index as Criteria of ODA(Official Development Assistance) Graduation

This study aims to enlist Official Development Assistance (ODA) graduation candidate countries through a review of the current eligibility criteria of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Development Assistance Committee (OECD DAC)-UN and establishment of the relationship between GNI per Capita (GNIPC) and Inequality Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Using the most recent panel data on HDI from 1990 to 2021 (as of 2024), Granger causality test is performed to find a statistically significant simplex causality of "Life Expectancy → Years of Schooling → GNI per Capita," which shows the efficacy of GNIPC as a single eligibility criterion. However, it suffers from ad-hocness in classifying middle- and high-income countries and a lack of consideration for the multidimensionality of development. As expected by definitions, GNIPC and IHDI are found to have a strong positive correlation, and a GNIPC of USD12,235 in 2017 PPP$ corresponds to an IHDI of 0.71 in 2021. The graduation path and its orthogonal direction indicate that Türkiye, Former USSR countries like Kazakhstan and Ukraine, Thailand, China, Peru, Brazil, and Indonesia are close to graduation, although it may take longer for India and South Africa to do so.