The influence of COVID-19 on Mexico’s local party system

This study tests if deaths caused by the COVID-19 epidemic influence levels of electoral coordination. Specifically, it tests if a higher number of epidemic deaths strengthens in-group cohesion such that it narrows the votes towards M + 1 parties; or if it weakens in-group cohesion such that it disperses the votes away from M + 1 parties. The results from a multilevel statistical analysis of close to two-thousand observations from Mexico’s 2021 general election suggest that voters struggle to coordinate around a few common options that they believe can best weather the crisis. Moreover, the results from a subsequent time-series cross-sectional analysis provide some support to the expectation that coordination decreased compared to the previous elections.