The Norm Saboteur: Two Scenarios for Power Transfer in the Post-Xi Jinping Era

Now that Xi Jinping has ended the fixed term system for China’s top leader and undermined the norms governing the cultivation of a successor, scholars have begun speculating on how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will organize the transfer of power in the post-Xi era. For this, I propose a “struggle-development” model for the period of Xi’s tenure and characterize him as a “norm saboteur.” I also discuss two possible scenarios for political succession: the return of the technocrats or a coup d’état. The first would be more conducive to peaceful development in China and a stable world order, whereas the second would likely lead to long-term unrest.