Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal

Atmospheric blocking has been identified as one of the key elements of the extratropical atmospheric variabilities, controlling extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Future projections indicate that Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency may decrease as CO 2 concentrations increase. Here, we show that such changes may not be reversed when CO 2 concentrations return to the current levels. Blocking frequency instead exhibits basin-dependent changes in response to CO 2 removal. While the North Atlantic blocking frequency recovers gradually from the CO 2 -induced eastward shift, the North Pacific blocking frequency under the CO 2 removal remains lower than its initial state. These basin-dependent blocking frequency changes result from background flow changes and their interactions with high-frequency eddies. Both high-frequency eddy and background flow changes determine North Atlantic blocking changes, whereas high-frequency eddy changes dominate the slow recovery of North Pacific blocking. Our results indicate that blocking-related extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere winter may not monotonically respond to CO 2 removal.