Pleasure and Satisfaction as Predictors of Future Cigarette and E-cigarette Use: A Novel Two-Stage Modeling Approach

Introduction Subjective experience of e-cigarettes may be an important factor in helping people who use combustible cigarettes switch completely to e-cigarettes to reduce harm from smoking. This paper describes a novel two-stage analysis using pleasure and satisfaction responses from ecological momentary assessments (EMA) of both cigarette and e-cigarette use to predict future cigarette and e-cigarette tobacco use. Aims and Methods This observational study included adult users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes who provided 7 days of EMA, capturing cigarette and e-cigarette use, followed by biweekly reports of cigarette and e-cigarette use over 1 year. Participants were 279 adults who provided both cigarette and e-cigarette responses during the EMA. We employed a two-stage analytic approach in which EMA data were used to predict subsequent levels of cigarette and e-cigarette use. In the first stage, EMA responses to cigarette and e-cigarette events were modeled via a mixed-effects location scale model to yield summaries of participants’ means and variability on event-related ratings of pleasure and satisfaction. These EMA summaries served as predictors in the second stage analysis of the biweekly post-EMA longitudinal cigarette and e-cigarette use data. Results EMA pleasure and satisfaction ratings were similar for both products and predicted both longitudinal cigarette and e-cigarette use, even after controlling for baseline cigarette and e-cigarette dependence. Relatively higher levels of satisfaction with e-cigarettes were associated with greater decreases in cigarette use over time. Conclusions Pleasure and satisfaction are important predictors of subsequent cigarette and e-cigarette use. Implications Experienced subjective pleasure and satisfaction from e-cigarettes relative to cigarettes may be an important factor in helping individuals who smoke to switch completely to e-cigarettes as a harm reduction approach. In order to help sustain complete product switching and reduce dual use or relapse to smoking, e-cigarettes may need to deliver more satisfaction to the user compared to that experienced from cigarettes.