Aggregation of Expert Judgments for Climate Tipping Points

Abstract This paper evaluates the probability of climate tipping points (CTPs) occurring by aggregating expert judgments. We use the Steiner point to derive probability mass functions from probability interval data and estimate tipping point probabilities under different warming scenarios, and then update them to project potential future outcomes. Results show that CTPs, traditionally viewed as low-probability-high-impact events, may have a significant chance of occurring even under low-warming scenarios (1-2°C). This finding highlights the urgent need for mitigation and containment policies to lower the chance of crossing these CTPs. Our analysis suggests that triggering CTPs becomes increasingly likely under scenarios of 2-4°C warming and above.