Syria’s Islamic State legacy problem could go critical

Significance It claimed to be avenging SDF treatment of detainees at Al-Hol camp, which holds thousands of women and children linked to IS. Ongoing security threats and regional dynamics are calling into question the ability of the US-backed SDF to manage the network of IS detention sites in northeast Syria. Impacts In the case of US departure and consequent SDF incapacity to maintain the camps, other actors (including Damascus and the UN) might step in. IS cells will be emboldened to try to organise prison breaks. Protracted displacement increases the long-term threat from detainees linked to IS, who have little access to rehabilitation processes. Many countries will resist rising US pressure to take back their citizens. Global aid cuts, which are having a countrywide impact in Syria, will further degrade humanitarian conditions in the camps.