Temporal Analysis and Prediction of Marriage Registration Figures Based on Long-Term Time Series Models

Marriage registration statistics serve as a crucial barometer, offering profound insights into multifaceted dimensions of societal dynamics encompassing cultural evolution, economic resilience, and demographic transitions. The meticulous examination of marriage registration trends not only furnishes valuable analytical fodder but also assumes a central role in informing evidence-based policy formulation and strategic societal planning. This study aims to construct a sophisticated time series forecasting framework, harnessing the wealth of daily marriage registration data spanning the preceding three years in Guangdong Province, while incorporating relevant external variables. The intricate nuances of the Chinese societal milieu are carefully accounted for through the inclusion of specific temporal features, thereby augmenting the accuracy of the time series predictions. Nevertheless, it is paramount to acknowledge that despite the enhanced precision in trend projection, ongoing optimization endeavors are imperative to fine-tune the forecasting model for more precise estimations of absolute magnitudes.