AGN flares as counterparts to the mergers detected by LIGO and Virgo: a novel spatial correlation analysis

The primary formation channel for the stellar-mass Binary Black Holes which have been detected merging by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration is yet to be discerned. One of the main obstacles is that such Gravitational Wave (GW) events are not in general expected to produce an Electromagnetic (EM) counterpart. This might not be the case if the mergers happen in gaseous environments, such as the accretion discs of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Recently, 20 AGN flares detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility have been investigated as potential counterparts of GW events by Graham et al. (2023). We present a new spatial correlation analysis involving such events that uses the up-to-date posterior samples of 78 mergers detected during the third observing run of the LVK collaboration. We apply a likelihood method which takes into account the exact position of the EM signal within the 3D sky map of the GW events. We find that current data favour the hypothesis of no causal connection between the detected mergers and the AGN flares. We place an upper limit of 0.155 at a 90 per cent credibility level on the fraction of coalescences that are physically related to a flare. Moreover, we show that the mass distribution of the merging binaries that appear in coincidence with AGN flares, characterised by values typically larger than the ones of the full population of GW events, is also consistent with the no-connection hypothesis. This is because of a positive correlation between the binary mass and the reconstruction volume.