Reliability Analysis of Frost Depth Estimation

The goal of this paper is to assess the reliability of frost depth estimations. Frost depth affects the foundation depth for buildings and infrastructure. Currently, geotechnical engineers in the United States determine the frost depth using generic contour maps that are independent of soil properties, the well-recognized changing climate, or the severity of frost heave on the considered structure. This study, rather, utilizes a new approach to consider frost depth in the construction sector. This approach is based on reliability analysis that considers potential variations in the soil's physical properties, climate change, and the importance of frost heave to the structure. The analysis is mainly based on the "modified Berggren" mechanistic-empirical model that predicts the frost depth, but it incorporates reliability into this model. The main results of this reliability-based analysis of frost depth are presented by a series of contour maps for the state of Alaska as a representative of US cold regions; these maps present the probabilities that the frost depth across Alaska exceeds 3 ft, 4 ft, and 5 ft.