HIV co-infection is associated with reduced Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmissibility in sub-Saharan Africa

Persons living with HIV are known to be at increased risk of developing tuberculosis (TB) disease upon infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( Mtb ). However, it has remained unclear how HIV co-infection affects subsequent Mtb transmission from these patients. Here, we customized a Bayesian phylodynamic framework to estimate the effects of HIV co-infection on the Mtb transmission dynamics from sequence data. We applied our model to four Mtb genomic datasets collected in sub-Saharan African countries with a generalized HIV epidemic. Our results confirm that HIV co-infection is a strong risk factor for developing active TB. Additionally, we demonstrate that HIV co-infection is associated with a reduced effective reproductive number for TB. Stratifying the population by CD4+ T-cell count yielded similar results, suggesting that, in this context, CD4+ T-cell count is not a better predictor of Mtb transmissibility than HIV infection status alone. Together, our genome-based analyses complement observational household contact studies, and more firmly establish the negative association between HIV co-infection and Mtb transmissibility.